United States Steel Corporation Releases First Quarter 2025 Guidance
United States Steel Corporation has issued its financial guidance for the first quarter of 2025, projecting adjusted net earnings per diluted share between ($0.53) and ($0.49). The company expects its adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 to be approximately $125 million.
Executive Commentary on Q1 2025 Outlook
David B. Burritt, President and Chief Executive Officer of U.S. Steel, stated, “Our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $125 million aligns with our previous outlook for the first quarter. The North American Flat-Rolled segment continues to demonstrate resilience, driven by a well-executed commercial strategy, a strong emphasis on operational efficiencies, and robust cost management. Our Mini Mill segment is expected to show sequential improvement, supported by increasing volumes from Big River Steel (BRS) and Big River 2 (BR2).”
Burritt also commented on market conditions, saying, “In Europe, pricing has improved slightly, but demand remains soft. We are managing production levels in line with customer demand and planned maintenance schedules. The Tubular segment continues to face challenges due to lingering impacts from a weak pricing environment, but we remain optimistic about future pricing improvements.”
Regarding progress at BR2, Burritt noted, “We are extremely pleased with customer feedback on BR2’s product quality. As BR2 moves toward full operational capacity and free cash flow generation in 2025, it is expected to make a significant contribution to our overall EBITDA. We anticipate achieving run-rate throughput during the second half of 2025, with full run-rate capability expected in 2026.”
Burritt also addressed the recent tariff announcements, stating, “We applaud President Trump’s leadership and advocacy for the American steel industry. We are assessing the potential benefits of these tariff policies. Along with our partnership with Nippon Steel—which includes investment commitments, technology transfer, and innovation—U.S. Steel’s future remains extremely bright.”
Segment Performance Expectations
Flat-Rolled Segment:
The Flat-Rolled segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to be lower than Q4 2024 due to seasonal logistics constraints in the mining sector. However, the impact is anticipated to reverse in the second quarter as conditions improve. Higher average selling prices and increased shipment volumes are expected to partially offset the temporary mining impact.
Mini Mill Segment:
The Mini Mill segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase from the previous quarter due to higher shipment volumes. The company estimates that ramp-related costs for BR2 will total approximately $50 million in Q1 2025, which is included in the Mini Mill segment’s adjusted EBITDA guidance.
European Segment:
The European segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve from Q4 2024, supported by increased shipments, volume efficiencies, and favorable raw material pricing. However, the segment continues to face headwinds from a challenging demand environment in Europe.
Tubular Segment:
The Tubular segment is projected to see higher adjusted EBITDA compared to Q4 2024, mainly due to an increase in prime shipments and higher average selling prices.
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
| (Dollars in millions) | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Projected Net Earnings | ($145) |
| Estimated Income Tax Provision | ($50) |
| Estimated Net Interest and Other Financial Costs | $30 |
| Estimated Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization | $245 |
| Projected EBITDA | $80 |
| Estimated Adjustments | $45 |
| Projected Adjusted EBITDA | $125 |
Reconciliation of Adjusted Net Earnings Guidance
| (Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Projected Net Earnings | ($145) |
| Estimated Adjustments | $30 |
| Projected Adjusted Net Earnings | ($115) |
| Per Diluted Share | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Projected Net Earnings Per Share | ($0.64) |
| Estimated Adjustments | $0.13 |
| Projected Adjusted Net Earnings Per Share | ($0.51) |
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and include expectations regarding financial performance, operational efficiency, market trends, and strategic initiatives. Forward-looking statements should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance, and actual results may vary due to various factors.
Risks include, but are not limited to, uncertainties surrounding the pending merger with Nippon Steel Corporation, the impact of tariff policies, global economic conditions, raw material pricing, and industry competition. U.S. Steel urges investors to review its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, for a detailed discussion of risk factors.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
U.S. Steel presents adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share, EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA as non-GAAP financial measures. These metrics provide additional insight into the company’s performance by excluding non-core operational charges, such as restructuring costs and asset impairments. Management believes these measures enhance investors’ ability to compare U.S. Steel’s performance with industry peers.
About U.S. Steel
Founded in 1901, United States Steel Corporation is a leader in sustainable steel solutions. The company serves industries such as automotive, construction, appliances, energy, and packaging with high-value steel products. U.S. Steel is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
The company’s advanced product lineup includes XG3® advanced high-strength steel, verdeX® steel—produced with up to 90% recycled content and significantly lower CO2 emissions—and InduX™ steel, a lightweight steel designed for electric vehicles and transformers.
Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. Steel operates across the United States and Central Europe. For more information, visit www.ussteel.com and follow U.S. Steel on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, and X.
